US president Donald Trump has warned there “could be big trouble” after three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets penetrated Estonian airspace in what Tallinn called the most brazen breach of its borders since the war in Ukraine began.
The heavy interceptors, capable of carrying hypersonic missiles, crossed five miles inside Estonia near Vaindloo Island on 19 September, flying without flight plans or transponders and ignoring air traffic control. They lingered for almost 12 minutes before Italian F-35s scrambled from the Ämari airbase forced them out.
“This is unacceptable,” said Kristen Michal, Estonia’s prime minister, who has called for urgent NATO Article 4 consultations. “Russia’s ever-increasing testing of borders and aggressiveness must be met with united and strong responses.”
The incursion sparked an emergency NATO response and drew swift condemnation across Europe. Margus Tsahkna, Estonia’s foreign minister, described it as “unprecedentedly brazen,” while Hanno Pevkur, the defence minister, linked the move to Moscow’s faltering campaign in Ukraine.
A “big trouble”
Asked in Washington whether NATO was under threat, Trump told reporters, “I don’t love it. I don’t like it when that happens. It could be big trouble.” The US president said he would be briefed on the reports and made it clear he was displeased. His comments are likely to be watched closely in the Baltic states, which see themselves as the Alliance’s most exposed frontier.
The US president said he would be briefed on the reports and made it clear he was displeased.
Air Marshal Greg Bagwell, former deputy commander of the Royal Air Force, warned that NATO must draw a clear line. “When it is crossed, the promised response is given – which should be lethal force after a clear warning. NATO has to be united now, with a clear and unequivocal statement about what will not be tolerated,” he said, according to the Daily Mail.
The incursion came amid further Russian provocations: two jets buzzed a Polish oil platform in the Baltic, and overnight strikes on Ukraine killed at least three and wounded dozens. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, said his country endured a “massive attack” of 580 drones and 40 missiles, accusing Moscow of deliberately targeting civilians and infrastructure.
Poland placed its air defences on high alert as allied jets patrolled its skies during the assault. Lithuanian and Latvian leaders also warned that NATO’s north-eastern flank was being deliberately tested.
A provocation to test NATO’s readiness
Estonian officials confirmed the Russian charge d’affaires had been summoned in Tallinn and handed a protest note. The incident marks the fourth such violation this year but the first involving a formation of three armed fighters.
“This is not an accident,” Kalev Stoicescu, the chair of the Estonian parliament’s defence committee, said. “It is a deliberate provocation designed to test NATO’s readiness.”
Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, called the move “an extremely dangerous provocation” and warned that “we must not show weakness.”
For Estonia, NATO’s smallest frontline state, the sight of Russian fighters loitering for twelve minutes above its skies is a stark reminder that Moscow is prepared to push boundaries. As one Estonian official put it, “The question is not whether Russia will try again – but how we will respond.”
