Why Estonia is about to spend 5% of its GDP on defence – and what it means for NATO.
Tallinn isn’t waiting for NATO to save it.
In an era when most European nations still struggle to meet the alliance’s 2% GDP defence spending target, Estonia just announced it will more than double that. Beginning in 2026, the Baltic state’s defence budget will soar past 5% of its GDP – an unprecedented military commitment for a nation of just 1.3 million people. The goal? To make any Russian invasion impossible.
“Russia’s strategic objectives have remained unchanged,” Estonia’s prime minister Kristen Michal warned after the decision was announced. “To ensure that Estonia is securely protected, we need to adapt quickly.”
The Estonian defence minister, Hanno Pevkur, called the moment a “leap” – a sudden acceleration of military readiness designed to fortify Estonia against an adversary that has already redrawn Europe’s borders by force. The move follows military recommendations from Estonia’s Commander of the Defence Forces, Andrus Merilo, and will fund next-generation air defences, deep-strike capabilities, electronic warfare systems and – perhaps most significantly – lessons learned from Ukraine’s battlefield successes against Russia.
Critics argue the government has been too slow
However, Estonia’s ambitious defence posture has not been without internal controversy. The former secretary-general of the Estonian defence ministry, Kusti Salm, and the former commander of the Defence Forces, Martin Herem, have criticised Pevkur for delays in ammunition procurement.
Salm claimed Pevkur had not spent a single cent on any of the €1.6 billion worth of ammunition proposed by the chief of the Defence Forces last autumn, describing this inaction as “completely irresponsible given the current situation”, emphasising that, for Estonia, this is an “absolutely existential issue”.
In response, Pevkur and other defence officials have stated that “procurement orders have been submitted” and that €1.6 billion has been committed to contracts. They emphasised that “all ammunition needs are being addressed” and that “efforts are underway” to expedite deliveries to Estonia.
Magnus-Valdemar Saar, the director-general of the Estonian Centre for Defence Investments, noted that while procurement contracts are expected to be finalised by 2025, with most deliveries by 2028, the process is complex due to the large order volumes and the necessity for international cooperation.
Europe’s rearmament
Estonia’s decision aligns with the European Union’s ambitious €800 billion rearmament plan, which aims to reverse decades of underinvestment in Europe’s defence industry. It also raises urgent questions for NATO: if one of its smallest members can push its military budget beyond 5% of GDP, what does that say about the alliance’s larger powers?
Estonia has no illusions about standing alone against Russia. But if Moscow ever considers testing NATO’s collective defence pledge, Estonia intends to ensure the cost is too high to bear.
