Estonia’s mergers and acquisitions market staged a decisive comeback in 2025, with transaction volumes up 18.5 per cent year on year and the country’s largest deals reaching unprecedented levels, according to a new analysis by Ellex Raidla.
The law firm’s Tehinguradar (Deal Radar) report shows that 205 transactions were completed over the year – 32 more than in 2024 – with activity accelerating sharply in the second half as investor confidence returned after a prolonged period of caution.
Risto Vahimets, a partner at Ellex Raidla, said improving macroeconomic conditions had helped revive dealmaking. Banks were again willing to lend, interest rates remained “reasonable”, and pressure to exit long-held assets was growing as capital accumulated in private funds. “At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty continues to be a significant risk factor,” he warned.
Despite that uncertainty, strategic buyers dominated the market, a trend Ellex Raidla expects to continue into 2026, even as private equity and financial investors gradually re-emerge. Technology – particularly artificial intelligence – alongside healthcare and energy technologies, is likely to remain the main focus.
Of the year’s transactions, 83 involved venture capital or technology companies, 95 were traditional mergers and acquisitions, 14 were large-scale real estate deals and 13 were issuances. The most prominent transaction was the €1.3 billion sale of Rimi Baltic to Denmark’s Salling Group, the largest retail deal ever seen in the Baltic states. Another landmark was Ingka’s (the investment arm of Ingka Group, the largest IKEA retailer) acquisition of a forestry portfolio from Södra in Estonia and Latvia.
Fundraising in the technology sector remained buoyant. Starship Technologies raised $50 million, while Pactum AI secured $54 million and Blackwall €45 million, underlining sustained investor appetite for AI, fintech, energy technology, cybersecurity and defence-related innovation.
Internationally, the picture was more uneven. Data from Dealogic show global deal volumes in the first half of 2025 fell 16 per cent compared with a year earlier, even as total transaction value rose 28 per cent – a sign of consolidation around fewer, larger strategic deals. Infrastructure and technology dominated, led by Union Pacific’s $86 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern. No European deal made the global top ten, highlighting the continued concentration of capital in the United States.
Ellex Raidla has published Tehinguradar since 2020, providing biannual snapshots of Estonia’s transaction market and forward-looking analysis. The full 2025 report will be published on the firm’s website on 5 January.
