Estonia’s population could shrink to below 700,000 by the end of the century if today’s low birth rate continues and migration remains balanced, according to a new demographic report by researchers from Tallinn University and the University of Tartu.
The report, In Search of Sustainability: Estonian Population Reproduction and Policy Recommendations, was unveiled on 25 May at a demographic conference organised by the Principles Think Tank. Its authors – Mare Ainsaar, Mark Gortfelder, Martin Klesment and Allan Puur – warn that Estonia has entered a period in which unusually small birth cohorts are no longer a temporary crisis effect, but a new demographic reality.
In both 2024 and 2025, fewer than 10,000 children were born in Estonia – the lowest number recorded since nationwide statistics began in 1919. According to the report, age-specific fertility rates have fallen across the board in recent years, in many cases by a fifth or more.
“Demographic change has great inertia, which means that stopping or reversing negative trends takes decades,” the authors note.
Smaller generations are now becoming parents
The report says Estonia is now experiencing the consequences of the small generations born after the restoration of independence. Those cohorts have reached childbearing age, reducing the number of potential parents even before individual fertility choices are taken into account.
At the same time, wider changes in values and attitudes towards parenthood have made childbearing less self-evident than in previous generations. External shocks – including the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine and the rapid rise in the cost of living – have further delayed or discouraged decisions to have children.
The authors stress that the fall is not confined to younger people postponing parenthood. Fertility rates have also declined among people in their late thirties and early forties, meaning that some of the missing births are unlikely ever to be recovered.
Three scenarios for Estonia’s future
Martin Klesment, a senior researcher at the Estonian Institute for Population Studies at Tallinn University, prepared three main population scenarios for the report. The models examine not only the size of Estonia’s population, but also changes in its ethnic composition up to the year 2100.
The aim, the report says, was not to offer a single fixed prediction, but to show how different fertility and migration paths would reshape Estonia’s future.
In the darkest scenario, fertility remains at its current low level of about 1.3 children per woman. If foreign migration is balanced – meaning roughly as many people leave Estonia as arrive – the country’s population would shrink by nearly half by the end of the century, falling to about 670,000. The annual number of births would fall by two thirds, to around 3,700.
Immigration could keep the population stable – but transform the country
The report says the fall in population could be avoided on paper through sustained immigration. If 8,000 more people moved to Estonia each year than left, the total population could remain close to its present level.
But that outcome would come at a profound demographic cost. By 2100, Estonia could have up to 600,000 new residents with a migration background. Under such a scenario, ethnic Estonians would fall below half of the total population, while among children and young people they would become a minority even earlier.
“The price of a sustained large positive migration balance would be a fundamental change in the composition of Estonia’s population,” Klesment writes in the report.
The authors note that the model does not fully account for the assimilation of immigrants and their descendants, especially through mixed families. In areas where Estonians remain a clear majority, assimilation would probably occur more quickly. But as the share of native Estonians declines, the opportunities for integration would also narrow.
Higher fertility would change the outlook
A more positive scenario would require fertility to rise again in the coming decades. If the average number of children per woman increased to 1.6 or 1.9, Estonia’s long-term outlook would improve significantly.
Under a balanced migration scenario and a fertility rate of 1.9, Estonia would see more than 10,700 births a year by the end of the century. With fertility at 1.6, annual births would be about 6,630.
The replacement level – the fertility rate needed to maintain the population without immigration – is about 2.1 children per woman. The report assumes that the modelled fertility targets would be reached in the 2040s and remain stable thereafter. It also assumes continued growth in life expectancy.
The difference between the scenarios may appear small in annual terms, but over decades it becomes decisive. Even a rise of 0.3 children per woman would have a major impact on Estonia’s demographic sustainability.
A warning against relying only on migration
The researchers argue that Estonia should not treat immigration as the sole answer to population decline. While migration may be necessary, they warn that maintaining the current population size through high immigration alone would change the country’s national composition to an extent rarely discussed openly.
They also assume that the migration balance of ethnic Estonians will be zero in the future. In the past decade, the migration balance of native Estonians has been slightly positive, partly because of return migration. But the authors note that this potential is likely to decline over time.
To preserve Estonia’s welfare level in the future, the report recommends looking more seriously at domestic resources: longer working lives, better inclusion of older people in society and the labour market, and long-term support for birth rates.
The authors add that a clearer recognition of population decline would force Estonia to reconsider some of its major planning assumptions.
“Awareness of population decline would require putting a significant share of large construction projects under the carpet,” they write.
A small nation cannot afford complacency
The report places Estonia’s challenge in a wider global context. Fertility rates are falling in much of the developed world, and many countries are already below the replacement level. But the authors argue that Estonia’s position is especially vulnerable because of its small population, geopolitical location and the central role of the Estonian language and culture in the state’s identity.
For larger nations, demographic decline may remain manageable for longer. For Estonia, the report suggests, the question is more immediate: whether the country can remain demographically, culturally and economically sustainable through the 21st century.
The choice outlined by the report is stark. Without higher fertility, Estonia faces either deep population decline or a level of immigration that would fundamentally alter the country’s composition. Neither path is easy. But the authors’ central warning is that delay itself is a decision – and in demography, the bill arrives decades later.
