A recent survey by pollster Kantar Emor reveals that the residents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania prefer Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election.
The pollster examined the preferences and attitudes of Baltic residents regarding the upcoming US presidential election. Around half of respondents in Estonia and Latvia, and 70% in Lithuania, favour Kamala Harris. In Estonia and Latvia, approximately 30% of respondents remain neutral.
“In Estonia, differences based on nationality play a role in the preferences for the presidential candidate,” Kantar Emor’s lead researcher, Aivar Voog, said in a statement. “While 66% of ethnic Estonians prefer Harris and 16% favour the Republican candidate Donald Trump, such a preference for Harris is not apparent among respondents of other nationalities.”
Among other nationalities, the highest proportion (47%) are neutral, with 27% supporting Harris and 25% backing Trump. Voog suggested that the stronger support for Harris in Lithuania could be explained by the lower proportion of residents of other nationalities compared to Estonia and Latvia.
Voog noted that attitudes towards the presidential candidates are also significantly influenced by respondents’ political preferences. While Harris is generally favoured (especially by supporters of the Reform Party), preferences differ across three other parties.
“About 70% of EKRE and Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives support Trump, but also Center Party supporters tend to prefer Trump over Harris. It is noteworthy that supporters of Isamaa, a conservative party, overwhelmingly favour Kamala Harris,” Voog said.
Most think the US should increase aid to Ukraine
Regardless of personal preferences, half of the respondents in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania believe Kamala Harris will win the election. About one-fifth believe Donald Trump will win. Nearly two-thirds of respondents think the US presidential election will have a significant impact on their country’s economy, trade and peace. Less than 5% believe the elections will have no effect.
The survey also asked whether the US should increase its aid to Ukraine. In Estonia (48%), Latvia (43%) and Lithuania (49%), the majority of respondents think aid should be increased.
“Here too, national differences are evident: 61% of ethnic Estonians believe that the US should allocate more resources to help Ukraine, with only 5% supporting a reduction in aid. Among non-ethnic respondents, one-fifth support increasing aid, while 41% think reducing it is the right step. Similar differences based on nationality are observed in Latvia,” the researcher said.
Respondents from all Baltic states believe the US’s global position will strengthen or remain the same if Kamala Harris becomes president. In contrast, they think that the US’s position will weaken if Donald Trump is elected.
The data is based on a representative survey conducted online between 19-26 September, with a total of 3,160 respondents from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania aged 16 and above.
