Estonia’s population fell for the second year in a row in 2025, as low birth rates, more deaths and a sharp reversal in migration pushed the country’s numbers down by 9,250 people.
On 1 January 2026, Estonia’s population stood at 1,360,745, according to revised figures published by Statistics Estonia. The decline underlines a familiar but deepening problem for the country: fewer children are being born, the population is ageing, and migration is no longer cushioning the fall.
Last year, Estonia recorded 9,240 births and 15,688 deaths. At the same time, 15,212 people immigrated and 18,014 emigrated, meaning net migration turned negative for the first time in more than a decade.
Kadri Rootalu, head of the population and education statistics service at Statistics Estonia, said about two-thirds of the population decline was caused by negative natural increase, while one-third came from net migration turning negative.
“In recent years, net migration had boosted the population figure and helped to offset the negative natural increase,” Rootalu said. “However, in 2025, net migration turned negative after more than ten years.”
Births keep falling
The number of births in Estonia dropped by 4.6% in 2025, with 450 fewer children born than in 2024. Although the fall was smaller than in the previous two years, the wider trend remains stark: compared with the average for 2010–2021, the number of births has fallen by more than 30%.2
Estonia’s total fertility rate stood at 1.16 in 2025, down slightly from 1.18 the year before and well below the 1.62 average recorded between 2017 and 2021.
Women are also having children later. The average age of mothers at childbirth rose to 31.2, while the average age of first-time mothers reached 29.4.
The structure of births is changing too. First-born children made up the largest share of births in 2025, with 4,010 first children born, compared with 3,092 second children and 2,138 third or later children. Since 2021, first births have fallen by 19%, but second births are down by 35% and third or later births by 40%.
Migration swings the other way
For years, positive net migration helped soften Estonia’s natural population decline. That changed in 2025.
Compared with 2024, immigration fell by 3,422, while emigration rose by 754, pushing net migration from plus 1,374 to minus 2,802.
The war in Ukraine continues to shape these movements. Ukrainian citizens had previously made up a large share of arrivals to Estonia, but in the past two years they have also formed a much larger share of those leaving.
Last year, 4,672 Estonian citizens arrived in the country and 6,238 left, while among Ukrainian citizens, 4,791 arrived and 5,617 emigrated.
Rootalu said emigration figures are influenced partly by registration delays, meaning some departures may have happened earlier than the statistics show.
An ageing Estonia
The latest figures also show Estonia continuing to age. Minors account for 18.7% of the population, while 21.4% are aged 65 or over. The share of children has fallen year on year, while the proportion of pension-age residents has grown.
Women make up 52.5% of the population and men 47.5%.
Of Estonia’s residents, 82.2% hold Estonian citizenship. Russian citizens account for 5.5%, Ukrainian citizens for 4.6%, and 4.3% have undetermined citizenship. Ethnic Estonians make up 68.5% of the population, broadly unchanged from a year earlier.
