The former Estonian president, Kersti Kaljulaid, has cautioned that Europe must take its own defence seriously as the United States re-evaluates its role on the continent.
Writing in the social media and speaking to the Estonian media after the Munich Security Conference, Kaljulaid noted that while the conference had long been a stage for Western unity against Russian aggression, this year’s discussions revealed deep uncertainties about Europe’s ability to stand on its own.
Kaljulaid, a seasoned attendee of the conference, remarked on social media that Munich always carries a sense of foreboding. “This is my eighth time here, and never once has it felt like the world is a safer place,” she wrote. “Munich’s very purpose, as Wolfgang Ischinger [the conference’s former chairman] has put it, has always been to keep the Russians out. In that sense, one could argue it has been successful – Russia today controls less territory than it did when this conference began.”
However, she acknowledged that for Eastern Europeans, the effectiveness of Munich’s goals has always been viewed through a different lens. The West’s slow recognition of the Soviet occupation of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania left a lasting sense of caution about relying on European solidarity alone. This unease resurfaced in Munich as discussions turned to NATO’s future, burden-sharing and the unpredictable nature of the new US administration.
A Republican bombshell
One of the most jarring moments at this year’s conference came from JD Vance, a Republican US Vice President and a close ally of US President Donald Trump. Vance’s speech, which largely ignored Russia and instead focused on lecturing Europeans about democracy and governance, shocked the room.
“Sitting up on the balcony, I could feel the reaction,” Kaljulaid recounted in an interview with Estonian newspaper Postimees. “The Americans have given far duller speeches in Munich before, yet those still received a much warmer reception. This one, however, disregarded the fundamental question: how to keep the Russians out.”
She noted that while Vance had signalled his intentions beforehand – stating he intended to “teach the Europeans about democracy” – few had expected such a blunt and undiplomatic approach. “It was a message that might have been appropriate at Davos, a forum about global economic shifts, but it did not belong in Munich,” Kaljulaid said.
Transatlantic uncertainty and European hesitation
The response from European leaders, particularly from Germany and France, did little to inspire confidence. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who spoke the day after Vance, appeared to have adjusted his speech in response. Yet despite talking of unity, concrete commitments from Western European countries remain elusive.
“When the COVID-19 crisis hit, France was able to mobilise over €100 billion in response. When it comes to Ukraine, their support has amounted to just €5 billion over three years,” Kaljulaid pointed out. “The disparity is glaring.”
While Eastern European countries, including Estonia and Poland, have been spending over 3% of their GDP on defence, many wealthier Western European nations still resist making similar investments. “We’re constantly told that it’s hard to increase defence spending to 3 or 4% of GDP,” she said. “Yes, we understand. We are already doing it. And yet, the richer, larger nations feel they can afford to be complacent.”
This imbalance in commitment is one reason why Trump’s often blunt demands that Europe pull its weight are not necessarily unwelcome in Eastern Europe. “When someone with greater influence tells Western Europe the truth, we have no objection,” Kaljulaid noted. “The real problem isn’t that the Americans call out European weakness – it’s that we, deep down, don’t believe our allies will truly step up.”
Baltic security in a changing landscape
Despite the rhetoric, Kaljulaid remains cautiously optimistic about the Baltic region’s standing. “Estonia and Poland now spend a higher percentage of GDP on defence than the US itself,” she said. “That fact has not gone unnoticed. We have clear plans within NATO, and our American allies recognise the efforts we’ve made.”
Meeting with NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, Kaljulaid was reassured that Baltic and Nordic contributions to Ukraine’s defence are valued. However, she also acknowledged a deeper problem: “NATO has a solid strategy on paper, but it’s like a glass container – transparent and, unfortunately, still empty.”
Asked whether she believes Trump’s return to the White House would pose a threat to Estonia’s security, Kaljulaid was pragmatic. “During Trump’s first term, we established good, high-level relations. The US Vice President [Mike Pence] even visited Estonia,” she recalled. “We learned then that, with the right approach, this administration listens. Traditional diplomatic methods don’t always work, but we can find the right angle to engage.”
Lessons for Europe
Kaljulaid’s ultimate message to her fellow Europeans was blunt: “If you want to send the Americans packing because you think they are too unconventional, too unpredictable, then be prepared to stand on your own. And if Europe wants America to take it seriously, it must prove that it means business. Talking alone won’t get you a seat at the table.”
As Europe grapples with an increasingly volatile security landscape, Kaljulaid’s warning is clear: empty promises and slow reactions are no longer sufficient. In an era where the old rules of diplomacy no longer apply, only real action will determine who is truly prepared to defend the continent.
